Problem #1747


Suppose that one of every 500 people in a certain population has a particular disease, which displays no symptoms. A blood test is available for screening for this disease. For a person who has this disease, the test always turns out positive. For a person who does not have the disease, however, there is a $2\%$ false positive rate--in other words, for such people, $98\%$ of the time the test will turn out negative, but $2\%$ of the time the test will turn out positive and will incorrectly indicate that the person has the disease. Let $p$ be the probability that a person who is chosen at random from this population and gets a positive test result actually has the disease. Which of the following is closest to $p$?

$\textbf{(A)}\ \frac{1}{98}\qquad\textbf{(B)}\ \frac{1}{9}\qquad\textbf{(C)}\ \frac{1}{11}\qquad\textbf{(D)}\ \frac{49}{99}\qquad\textbf{(E)}\ \frac{98}{99}$

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Instructions for entering answers:

  • Reduce fractions to lowest terms and enter in the form 7/9.
  • Numbers involving pi should be written as 7pi or 7pi/3 as appropriate.
  • Square roots should be written as sqrt(3), 5sqrt(5), sqrt(3)/2, or 7sqrt(2)/3 as appropriate.
  • Exponents should be entered in the form 10^10.
  • If the problem is multiple choice, enter the appropriate (capital) letter.
  • Enter points with parentheses, like so: (4,5)
  • Complex numbers should be entered in rectangular form unless otherwise specified, like so: 3+4i. If there is no real component, enter only the imaginary component (i.e. 2i, NOT 0+2i).

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