Problem #1889

1889.

In a small pond there are eleven lily pads in a row labeled $0$ through $10$. A frog is sitting on pad $1$. When the frog is on pad $N$, $0<N<10$, it will jump to pad $N-1$ with probability $\frac{N}{10}$ and to pad $N+1$ with probability $1-\frac{N}{10}$. Each jump is independent of the previous jumps. If the frog reaches pad $0$ it will be eaten by a patiently waiting snake. If the frog reaches pad $10$ it will exit the pond, never to return. What is the probability that the frog will escape being eaten by the snake?

$\textbf {(A) } \frac{32}{79} \qquad \textbf {(B) } \frac{161}{384} \qquad \textbf {(C) } \frac{63}{146} \qquad \textbf {(D) } \frac{7}{16} \qquad \textbf {(E) } \frac{1}{2}$

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Instructions for entering answers:

  • Reduce fractions to lowest terms and enter in the form 7/9.
  • Numbers involving pi should be written as 7pi or 7pi/3 as appropriate.
  • Square roots should be written as sqrt(3), 5sqrt(5), sqrt(3)/2, or 7sqrt(2)/3 as appropriate.
  • Exponents should be entered in the form 10^10.
  • If the problem is multiple choice, enter the appropriate (capital) letter.
  • Enter points with parentheses, like so: (4,5)
  • Complex numbers should be entered in rectangular form unless otherwise specified, like so: 3+4i. If there is no real component, enter only the imaginary component (i.e. 2i, NOT 0+2i).

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